Several Lebanese sides have contradictory feelings about the repercussions of military operations in Syria on Lebanon’s political situation. (Photo: Marwan Tahtah)
In the last few hours, Lebanon has witnessed a number of inconclusive, but positive, indicators that will push forward the formation of the Tammam Salam government.
First, the next 48 hours are expected to witness a meeting between the designated prime minister and Minister of Energy Gebran Bassil, representing Free Patriotic Movement leader and MP Michel Aoun. The meeting will be an attempt to move forward in the formation of the government and continue the negotiations began by Salam with March 8.
Second, an agreement is being finalized to rotate the main ministerial portfolios among the different sides. In this respect, it was rumored that the finance ministry will be awarded to a Shia and the foreign ministry to a Sunni. This followed objections by the Future Movement and its allies on the role of current foreign minister Adnan Mansour and his transgression of the consensus of the Baabda Declaration on the war in Syria.
The ministry of interior will remain with President Michel Suleiman and will be given to a Maronite. However, the portfolios that caused the most controversy in the past few days, such as energy, water, and telecom, will be rotated as fairly as possible.
Third, negotiations under the table are focusing on each side’s share of representatives in the Salam government. It seems that March 8 decided to let go of the idea of 30 ministers, agreeing on 24. However, the designated prime minister wants it even smaller.
Fourth, there is little hope that the parliamentary committee will arrive at a new electoral law since there is no longer consent on the mixed system. Without this law, the committee will lack an agenda. Several members have already threatened to boycott the meetings.
The Christians reject the 2008 law, but the Sunnis and Druze do not mind. It seems that the Shia, who expected to replace the Orthodox Law through the mixed law, fell into a predicament, due to lack of alternative.
Fifth, the correlation between the formation of the government and the new electoral law will lead to losing them both. While they both have one objective – the 2013 parliamentary elections – their mechanisms should be separate.
The designated prime minister is striving to form a government, but cannot be sure if this will happen before the new year, which is the deadline he set for his term. Following that, he will face a 25 March 2014 constitutional deadline related to the election of a new president.
The parliament will face a similar conundrum, with two constitutional limitations. The first will be on 19 May 2013, after which the 2008 electoral law will be in force. The second will be on June 19, which is the last day for the current parliament. The parliament will need to decide before that date if it will extend its term or face the deadline of electing a new president.
Sixth, rapid developments in Syria are impacting the formation of the Salam government. This opens the door for conjectures that the situation will not allow Salam to form a government. Some in March 8 say that they are not in a hurry to form a government as they are awaiting the results of military operations in Syria.
Several Lebanese sides have
contradictory feelings about the repercussions of military operations in Syria on Lebanon’s political situation. This follows military gains achieved by the Syrian army against armed opponents in the countrysides of Damascus and Homs, clearing the road from Hama to Aleppo.
The Syrian regime, supported militarily by Hezbollah, is attempting to regain complete control over its western borders with Lebanon.
Nicolas Nassif is a political analyst at Al-Akhbar.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
First, the next 48 hours are expected to witness a meeting between the designated prime minister and Minister of Energy Gebran Bassil, representing Free Patriotic Movement leader and MP Michel Aoun. The meeting will be an attempt to move forward in the formation of the government and continue the negotiations began by Salam with March 8.
Second, an agreement is being finalized to rotate the main ministerial portfolios among the different sides. In this respect, it was rumored that the finance ministry will be awarded to a Shia and the foreign ministry to a Sunni. This followed objections by the Future Movement and its allies on the role of current foreign minister Adnan Mansour and his transgression of the consensus of the Baabda Declaration on the war in Syria.
The ministry of interior will remain with President Michel Suleiman and will be given to a Maronite. However, the portfolios that caused the most controversy in the past few days, such as energy, water, and telecom, will be rotated as fairly as possible.
Third, negotiations under the table are focusing on each side’s share of representatives in the Salam government. It seems that March 8 decided to let go of the idea of 30 ministers, agreeing on 24. However, the designated prime minister wants it even smaller.
Fourth, there is little hope that the parliamentary committee will arrive at a new electoral law since there is no longer consent on the mixed system. Without this law, the committee will lack an agenda. Several members have already threatened to boycott the meetings.
The Christians reject the 2008 law, but the Sunnis and Druze do not mind. It seems that the Shia, who expected to replace the Orthodox Law through the mixed law, fell into a predicament, due to lack of alternative.
Fifth, the correlation between the formation of the government and the new electoral law will lead to losing them both. While they both have one objective – the 2013 parliamentary elections – their mechanisms should be separate.
The designated prime minister is striving to form a government, but cannot be sure if this will happen before the new year, which is the deadline he set for his term. Following that, he will face a 25 March 2014 constitutional deadline related to the election of a new president.
The parliament will face a similar conundrum, with two constitutional limitations. The first will be on 19 May 2013, after which the 2008 electoral law will be in force. The second will be on June 19, which is the last day for the current parliament. The parliament will need to decide before that date if it will extend its term or face the deadline of electing a new president.
Sixth, rapid developments in Syria are impacting the formation of the Salam government. This opens the door for conjectures that the situation will not allow Salam to form a government. Some in March 8 say that they are not in a hurry to form a government as they are awaiting the results of military operations in Syria.
Several Lebanese sides have
contradictory feelings about the repercussions of military operations in Syria on Lebanon’s political situation. This follows military gains achieved by the Syrian army against armed opponents in the countrysides of Damascus and Homs, clearing the road from Hama to Aleppo.
The Syrian regime, supported militarily by Hezbollah, is attempting to regain complete control over its western borders with Lebanon.
Nicolas Nassif is a political analyst at Al-Akhbar.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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