Important Syrian Update

Monday, 25 March 2013

Important Syrian Update

by Daniel Mabsout

The scheme in Syria is of escalation and partition and greater pressures over the Syrian government from neighboring countries and greater pressures- as well - over the allies of Syria in Lebanon , Iraq and Iran . All the changes in neighboring countries like the resignation of Lebanese prime Minister Mikati and the dismissing of the Lebanese cabinet, as well as the resignation of Ma’az Al Khatib from leading the Coalition of the Syrian opposition , including the visit of Obama to Jordan and what is called the new Israeli/Turkish reconciliation . All these visits and measures and steps are but part of the new scenario designed for Syria that has not been given the last touch but has already started .

Everyone has come to realize the fact that failing in achieving any progress or success in Syria means that Israel will be more exposed and threatened since the Resistance axis will be strengthened . The inviting of the head of the Syrian government in exile- Ghassan Hito- to fill in the Syrian chair in the Arab League means that the forces adverse to Syria have decided to resume their plan of partition of the country.

This partition will take place by starting snatching bits of territories and putting them under the jurisdiction of the new government and working on enlarging them as much as much as possible to include the entire area of Aleppo and parts of Idlib as well . For this, the fighters of the opposition will be put under the new commandment of western specialized teams and will be provided with weapons and equipments and will fight under foreign supervision .

This starting of a new plan required the replacement of some people -namely -Ma’az al Khatib - who have served their term, and may explain the targeting of the FSA Chief commander , Riad al Ass’ad- who has refused to recognize the head of the new government- by a bomb that caused the amputation of one of his legs .

The neighboring countries are expected to play a major role in the new escalation policy which explains the visit Kerry made to Iraq yesterday , whereby he expressed his desire to have the Iraqi authorities forbid the use of its air space by Irani planes carrying equipment to Syria. It is not sure that Maliki will abide by the instructions since Iraq –along with Algeria and Lebanon - has refused to recognize the new Syrian government .

Coordinating this new adverse plan between Turkey – on one hand- and Israel –on the other- required the so called reconciliation between Anqara and Tel Aviv after the unfortunate Mavi Marmara incident . Israel finally apologized after almost three years and the relations that were never severed can thus be given a new momentum .

At the same time the so called truce reached between the PKK and the Turkish authorities and the promises given by Erdugan to grant the Kurds their cultural and political rights will assure at least the neutrality- if not the support- of the Syrian Kurds that live by the northern borders with Turkey to the plan carried on by the opposition .

As a bordering country, it is expected that the forces allied with Syria in Lebanon- mainly Hizbullah- undergo great pressures as well as an attempt at depriving them of being represented in the government and make them lose – as well- the next parliamentary elections, not to speak of threatening them with sectarian warfare .The resignation of Mikati seems to fall right in place to defer the elections and leave the country totally exposed . But Hizbullah –as known – will not be easily drawn into internal sectarian fight.

This plan put together by the forces adverse to Syria is supposed to work and bring the desired change that will curb the forces of the Resistance and grant security to Israel . But this plan is very unlikely to work and the opposition s on the ground seems unable to achieve anything substantial that the adverse forces can build on . The opposition is divided and when the thugs are not fighting over the loot they prove unable to extend their hegemony or retain the occupied spots .

The whole Arab and western world has rallied against Syria except for few countries . The Gulf countries proved to be the fiercest and most determined enemies, and the Palestinians - who are the ones to be primarily concerned with this battle that will decide for the future Arab/Israeli struggle- have either been neutralized by choosing to work with foreign affiliated NGOS – like BDS and the like- that refuse armed struggle, or have opted to fight on the adverse side for sectarian reasons that have greatly harmed the Palestinian issue and set Palestinians against their own cause.