SYRIAN UPDATE / CONCLUSION

Daniel Mabsout,

The resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati and that of the Lebanese Cabinet subsequently comes because what is being required now from Lebanon- on behalf of the western establishment- is no more neutrality and non involvement in the Syrian issue but active recognition of the new government of the coalition and replacement of the actual Syrian ambassador by a …representative of the coalition of the opposition .

Lebanese authorities will not yield to such desire and the tendency is to name Mikati again as Prime Minister, or someone like him who occupies a middle position. Lebanon is about to reproduce the same cabinet and therefore the same position regarding Syria ,which means that all this turmoil provoked by the Arab League and the visit of Obama will not bring the desired change and looks more like a storm within a cup of tea, not to mention that Lebanese authorities are dissatisfied with the performance of Arabs and the Arab League that has not given enough money to spend on the almost two million Syrian refugees who fled to Lebanon lately .

On the other hand, the kingdom of Jordan is also very hesitant to endorse the role given by the US administration- after the visit of Obama – so as to facilitate the mission of the Syrian opposition by training fighters that are not among the fanatics of al Qa’ida . Not to forget that Jordan has refused – until now – to accommodate thousands of refugees fleeing Syria – among them a number of Palestinians- and to host them in acceptable conditions and in equipped camps for fear that these camps will turn into training fields as is the case with the Turkish refugee camps .

Jordan has also refused lately to let Saudi fighters cross the borders towards Syria . These two governments- whether Jordanian or Saudi – live in the fear of seeing the thugs of the opposition return home knowing the fact that Jordan comes second after Saudi Arabia in the number of opposition fighters active on the Syrian ground .

We don’t know to what extent the king of Jordan will answer Obama’s call, being aware of the fact that- lately -Jordan has been looking for improving economic relations with Iraq at the expense of the Gulf countries, and is not happy to see that the general US orientation is to solve the Palestinian problem at the expense of Jordan by operating demographic changes whereby Palestinians- who are mostly Muslim Brothers -will form the majority in the kingdom . All this, not withholding the fact that an eventual fall of the Syrian regime that will bring the Muslim Brothers to power is not seen with a favorable eye in Jordan .

All this means that the stormy visit of Obama, and the non less stormy 24th Conference of the unfortunate Arab League, will leave things pretty much where they were regarding the Syrian situation and maybe the whole thing was but a show to bring comfort to Israelis and to Netenyahu and assure that things are going the right way . Now, if you add to this the fact that the new agreement between the Turkish government and the PKK – meant to draw the Kurdish Syrians to the side of the opposition – is not to be taken seriously because Kurds – according to experts – will never trust Erdogan, you end up with Obama leaving the area maybe empty handed .

Remains the question of the Israeli/ Turkish reconciliation which in itself is a show , the relations between the two have never been better whether in terms of trade exchange- that has reached its highest peak lately -or in terms of military cooperation. The only unresolved matter concerns the indemnities paid to the families of the victims of the Mavi Marmara that Israel insists that they do not exceed the limit of 100 thousands dollars or even 70 thousand dollars – for each family- in comparison with the million or two millions that the Turks are asking for , but this- of course – will not form an impediment to the Israeli / Turkish relations that go back to 1949 immediately after the establishment of the usurping state in 1948 and which have been flourishing since.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
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